A Rout Across the Board: Corn, Soy & Wheat All Tumble

It was a week of relentless selling pressure across the entire complex. The sharpest losses were in soybeans, which fell by almost USD 24/mt on the week as China — the world's dominant buyer — stayed on the sidelines. Trade reports are blunt: too many soybeans, too few buyers. The coming weeks could prove pivotal, as the crop approaches a critical window for pod setting, where adverse weather could quickly reverse the bearish trend.

Corn shed around USD 11/mt, though trade commentary is turning cautiously constructive. Several reports argue that limited downside remains after the recent price tumble, pointing to favourable near-term weather, continued strength in ethanol demand, and export figures that remain solid week-to-week despite the occasional soft shipment.

Winter wheat shed USD 11/mt and spring wheat USD 15/mt, both weighed down by harvest pressure as the US winter crop condition looks good and heavy world wheat supplies are moving international prices lower. Favourable weather across both winter and spring growing regions leaves little premium in the market. Any deterioration in conditions would change the calculus quickly.

The North/Central Peru fishing ban is scheduled to lift at 23:49 on June 10, 2026, unless extended by Peruvian authorities. Whether this provides meaningful supply relief remains uncertain. Total North/Central catch stands at 470,549 mt with 1,443,500 mt of quota remaining; the South region adds only 158,170 mt caught with 92,830 mt of open quota still available.

A worsening El Niño forecast is adding pressure, though the scientific picture from ENFEN is considerably more measured than press reporting implies. ENFEN forecasts a coastal El Niño event through February 2027 at "weak magnitude" — a meaningful distinction from the severe events that have historically devastated Peruvian anchoveta stocks. Booked sales of approximately 180,000 mt remain outstanding against thin supply, and MSI Ceres data shows January–April Peru fishmeal exports running about 27% below prior-year levels. Prices in China are reported to be rising every day.