China’s major agricultural and animal husbandry companies say China’s soybean import demand will peak at 100 million tons

August 23,2023

An executive of a large agricultural and animal husbandry company in China said that as population growth slows down and consumption habits change, China’s soybean demand will not continue to grow significantly in the next few years.
Sun Lige, vice president of Hefeng Foods, said on the sidelines of a meeting held in New York that China’s soybean import demand will stabilize for at least the next five years, and the import volume will fluctuate around 100 million tons. China’s soybean import demand has grown enormously since the mid-1990s. Before 1995/1996, China’s annual soybean imports were less than 200,000 tons. In 1996/1997, China’s soybean imports exceeded one million tons for the first time, reaching a record 2.27 million tons. China’s soybean imports have repeatedly hit new highs in the following two decades. The import volume in 2022/23 is expected to be a record 100 million tons, an increase of 6.3 percentage points from the annual import volume five years ago. Sun Lige said that the main factor behind the imminent peaking of soybean demand in China is the aging population and the fact that young Chinese prefer chicken to pork, which affects the demand for animal feed. Price is also why young people choose poultry over pork. He added that the future of soybean demand in China is not very optimistic. According to Sun, White meat is often healthier, easier to cook, and less expensive. He added that this shift in spending habits stems from consumer preference rather than policy-driven. Li Ying, purchasing manager at Sichuan Tequ Investment (Group), said China would buy the soybeans it needed from the U.S. or South America, mainly based on price rather than quality. It’s a price-sensitive market, he said.